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Bristol Rovers vs Cheltenham — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
12/9/2023League OneLeague One · Round 21Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bristol Rovers43%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.42
Cheltenham
1.17

Bristol Rovers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Cheltenham
1.67

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
69%
Bristol Rovers or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
57%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
41%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
33%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
58%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
43%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
31%

Bristol Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–1 Cheltenham

Bristol Rovers and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in League One on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.