Cheltenham 1–4 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Bristol Rovers

L. Sercombe 54' (pen)

A. Collins 45+2', 15'

B. Thomas 42'

A. Evans 23'

10/15/2022

League One · Round 15Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham43%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Cheltenham

1.40

Bristol Rovers

1.14

Cheltenham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 131 away

1.19

creates per match

0.95

1.32

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

69%

Cheltenham or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

57%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

20%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

75%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

41%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

58%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheltenham scores more

43%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

31%

Cheltenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Collins

Bristol Rovers · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

A. Collins

23'

A. Evans↳ A. Collins

42'

B. Thomas↳ P. Coutts

45+2'

A. Collins↳ J. Belshaw

54'

L. SercombePenalty

70'

H. Anderson← J. Rossiter

70'

J. Coburn← R. Loft

71'

Lewis Gibson

80'

L. McCormick← S. Finley

81'

C. Norton← T. Perry

82'

J. Olayinka← D. NLundulu

89'

T. Clarke← A. Collins

89'

L. Hoole← L. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots5

7Corners2

10Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots5

4On Target4

3Off Target0

3Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

377Total Passes366

262Accurate Passes250

69%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1