Cheltenham 3–2 Bradford: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bradford

9/17/2019

League Two · Round 9Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cheltenham41%

×Draw27%

Bradford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.16

Cheltenham

1.36

Bradford

1.16

Cheltenham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 139 away

1.49

creates per match

1.15

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

68%

Cheltenham or Bradford

73%

Draw or Bradford

59%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

19%

Bradford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

74%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

39%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

16%

Bradford 1+ goals

69%

Bradford 2+ goals

32%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

56%

Bradford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bradford attack 1.15 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more

41%

level

27%

Bradford scores more

32%

Cheltenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff