Bradford 1–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Bradford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

C. Donaldson 23'

C. Clements 76'

A. May 45'

12/1/2020

League Two · Round 15The Utilita Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Bradford45%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Bradford

1.38

Cheltenham

1.01

Bradford creates 37% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 95 away

1.37

creates per match

1.06

0.96

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bradford

1.37

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Bradford

0.96

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

72%

Bradford or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

55%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

22%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

75%

Bradford 2+ goals

40%

Bradford 3+ goals

16%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

64%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

27%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

62%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bradford scores more

45%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

28%

Bradford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

E. Watt

Bradford · M

7.6

Match Events

23'

C. Donaldson↳ C. Cooke

45'

A. May↳ C. Hussey

46'

C. Clements← E. Chapman

64'

T. French← B. Hosannah

72'

H. Pritchard← C. Cooke

76'

C. Clements

78'

A. Williams← A. May

79'

T. Sang← F. Azaz

82'

A. Samuels← D. Mottley-Henry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordCheltenham

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots13

2Corners4

6Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target6

6Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

379Total Passes425

262Accurate Passes297

69%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls12

4Offsides0