Cheltenham Town W 0–2 Wolverhampton W

Cheltenham Town W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wolverhampton W

1/12/2025

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundKayte Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cheltenham Town W15%

×Draw14%

Wolverhampton W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheltenham Town WExpected goals in this matchWolverhampton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

3.31

Cheltenham Town W

1.50

Wolverhampton W

3.31

Wolverhampton W creates 121% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.00

creates per match

4.88

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cheltenham Town W

2.00

Wolverhampton W

4.88

allows per match

Cheltenham Town W

1.75

Wolverhampton W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Wolverhampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham Town W ↓

Wolverhampton W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Cheltenham Town W or draw

29%

Cheltenham Town W or Wolverhampton W

86%

Draw or Wolverhampton W

85%

Winning margin

Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+

Wolverhampton W wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals

78%

Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals

44%

Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals

19%

Wolverhampton W 1+ goals

96%

Wolverhampton W 2+ goals

83%

Wolverhampton W 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)

17%

Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham Town W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Wolverhampton W away — creates 4.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.00 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wolverhampton W attack 4.88 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Cheltenham Town W scores more

15%

level

14%

Wolverhampton W scores more

71%

Wolverhampton W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wolverhampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Cheltenham Town W 0–2 Wolverhampton W

Wolverhampton W beat Cheltenham Town W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Kayte Lane in Bishop's Cleeve, Gloucestershire.

Cheltenham Town W vs Wolverhampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Cheltenham Town W 0–2 Wolverhampton W