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Cheltenham Town W vs Reading W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Cheltenham Town W
Cheltenham Town W
FT
0 – 4
Reading W
Reading W
12/10/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundKayte Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cheltenham Town W25%
×Draw19%
Reading W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham Town W
1.63
Reading W
2.50

Reading W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cheltenham Town W
2.00
Reading W
3.25

allows per match

Cheltenham Town W
1.75
Reading W
1.25

finishing

Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par
Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham Town W ↓

Reading W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Cheltenham Town W or draw
44%
Cheltenham Town W or Reading W
81%
Draw or Reading W
75%

Winning margin

Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+
11%
Reading W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals
80%
Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals
48%
Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals
22%
Reading W 1+ goals
92%
Reading W 2+ goals
71%
Reading W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)
31%
Reading W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham Town W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Reading W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.00 + Reading W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Reading W attack 3.25 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cheltenham Town W scores more
25%
level
19%
Reading W scores more
56%

Reading W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Cheltenham Town W 0–4 Reading W

Reading W beat Cheltenham Town W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kayte Lane in Bishop's Cleeve, Gloucestershire.