Cheltenham Town W 0–1 Leyton Orient W

Cheltenham Town W

0 – 1

Leyton Orient W

11/17/2019

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundPetersfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham Town W31%

×Draw20%

Leyton Orient W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheltenham Town WExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.38

Cheltenham Town W

1.90

Leyton Orient W

2.38

Leyton Orient W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

3.00

1.75

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Cheltenham Town W

2.00

Leyton Orient W

3.00

allows per match

Cheltenham Town W

1.75

Leyton Orient W

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Leyton Orient W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham Town W ↓

Leyton Orient W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Cheltenham Town W or draw

51%

Cheltenham Town W or Leyton Orient W

80%

Draw or Leyton Orient W

69%

Winning margin

Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals

85%

Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals

56%

Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient W 1+ goals

91%

Leyton Orient W 2+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient W 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)

39%

Leyton Orient W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham Town W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Leyton Orient W away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.00 + Leyton Orient W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Leyton Orient W attack 3.00 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cheltenham Town W scores more

31%

level

20%

Leyton Orient W scores more

49%

Leyton Orient W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leyton Orient W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheltenham Town W vs Leyton Orient W

Leyton Orient W beat Cheltenham Town W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Petersfield Park in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.

Cheltenham Town W vs Leyton Orient W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cheltenham Town W vs Leyton Orient W