Cheltenham Town W 3–2 Exeter City W: Result & Stats

Cheltenham Town W

3 – 2

Exeter City W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Corinium Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cheltenham Town W17%

×Draw16%

Exeter City W67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheltenham Town WExpected goals in this matchExeter City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.94

Cheltenham Town W

1.43

Exeter City W

2.94

Exeter City W creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

4.14

1.75

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Cheltenham Town W

2.00

Exeter City W

4.14

allows per match

Cheltenham Town W

1.75

Exeter City W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Exeter City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham Town W ↓

Exeter City W →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Cheltenham Town W or draw

33%

Cheltenham Town W or Exeter City W

84%

Draw or Exeter City W

83%

Winning margin

Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+

Exeter City W wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals

76%

Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals

42%

Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals

17%

Exeter City W 1+ goals

95%

Exeter City W 2+ goals

79%

Exeter City W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)

20%

Exeter City W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham Town W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Exeter City W away — creates 4.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.00 + Exeter City W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Exeter City W attack 4.14 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cheltenham Town W scores more

17%

level

16%

Exeter City W scores more

67%

Exeter City W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Exeter City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff