Chelsea W 5–0 Yeovil Town W: Result & Stats

Chelsea W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Yeovil Town W

11/18/2018

FA WSL · Round 5Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium (Kingston upon Thames, Surrey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chelsea W78%

×Draw14%

Yeovil Town W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea WExpected goals in this matchYeovil Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.67

Chelsea W

2.60

Yeovil Town W

0.67

Chelsea W creates 288% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 10 away

2.81

creates per match

0.70

0.64

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Chelsea W

2.81

Yeovil Town W

0.70

allows per match

Chelsea W

0.64

Yeovil Town W

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Yeovil Town W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw

93%

Chelsea W or Yeovil Town W

86%

Draw or Yeovil Town W

22%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+

57%

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals

92%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

73%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

47%

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals

49%

Yeovil Town W 2+ goals

15%

Yeovil Town W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

91%

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 2.81, concedes 0.64 · 84 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 2.81 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.60

Yeovil Town W attack 0.70 + Chelsea W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Chelsea W scores more

78%

level

14%

Yeovil Town W scores more

7%

Chelsea W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff