Chelsea W 3–2 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Chelsea W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Real Madrid W

M. Ramírez 53'

G. Reiten 27' (pen)

S. Nüsken 2'

L. Caicedo 83'

Alba Redondo 39'

10/8/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 1Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chelsea W57%

×Draw21%

Real Madrid W22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.19

Chelsea W

2.06

Real Madrid W

1.19

Chelsea W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

2.48

creates per match

1.56

0.81

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Chelsea W

2.48

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Chelsea W

0.81

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw

78%

Chelsea W or Real Madrid W

79%

Draw or Real Madrid W

43%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+

34%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals

87%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

61%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

34%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

70%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

33%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

73%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 2.48 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.06

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Chelsea W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chelsea W scores more

57%

level

21%

Real Madrid W scores more

22%

Chelsea W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Nüsken

Chelsea W · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

S. Nüsken↳ J. Rytting Kaneryd

27'

G. ReitenPenalty

39'

Alba Redondo

53'

M. Ramírez↳ L. James

61'

Teresa Abelleira

63'

L. Caicedo← Teresa Abelleira

66'

A. Lawrence← S. Baltimore

66'

M. Hamano← W. Kaptein

66'

A. Beever-Jones← M. Ramírez

74'

N. Feller← Alba Redondo

74'

Eva Navarro← Athenea del Castillo

75'

O. Jean-François← J. Rytting Kaneryd

83'

L. Caicedo

89'

M. Mpome← L. James

89'

C. Møller← C. Weir

89'

Oihane Hernández← Sheila García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaReal

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots14

6Corners3

9Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box11

1Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

572Total Passes434

491Accurate Passes359

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0