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Chelsea W vs Paris FC W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Chelsea W
Chelsea W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
10/15/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 2Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chelsea W62%
×Draw22%
Paris FC W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea W
1.91
Paris FC W
0.84

Chelsea W creates 127% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chelsea W
2.42
Paris FC W
0.80

allows per match

Chelsea W
0.88
Paris FC W
1.40

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw
84%
Chelsea W or Paris FC W
78%
Draw or Paris FC W
38%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+
37%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea W 2+ goals
57%
Chelsea W 3+ goals
30%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
57%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
21%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)
80%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 2.42 + Paris FC W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Paris FC W attack 0.80 + Chelsea W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chelsea W scores more
62%
level
22%
Paris FC W scores more
16%

Chelsea W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Chelsea W 4–0 Paris FC W

Chelsea W beat Paris FC W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.