Chelsea W 3–0 Manchester United W: Result & Stats

Chelsea W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester United W

5/18/2025

FA Women's Cup · FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chelsea W46%

×Draw22%

Manchester United W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chelsea WExpected goals in this matchManchester United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.55

Chelsea W

1.88

Manchester United W

1.55

Chelsea W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

3.06

creates per match

2.80

0.31

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Chelsea W

3.06

Manchester United W

2.80

allows per match

Chelsea W

0.31

Manchester United W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea W ↓

Manchester United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Chelsea W or draw

68%

Chelsea W or Manchester United W

78%

Draw or Manchester United W

54%

Winning margin

Chelsea W wins by 2+

25%

Manchester United W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chelsea W 1+ goals

85%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

56%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

29%

Manchester United W 1+ goals

79%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

46%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

59%

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea W at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.31 · 16 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea W attack 3.06 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.88

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Chelsea W defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chelsea W scores more

46%

level

22%

Manchester United W scores more

32%

Chelsea W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chelsea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff