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Chelsea vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
M. Mount 90+1', 85' (pen), 8'
M. Aarons 62' (OG)
B. Chilwell 57'
R. James 42'
C. Hudson-Odoi 18'
10/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chelsea64%
×Draw21%
Norwich14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.91
Norwich
0.77

Chelsea creates 148% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 54 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.78
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Chelsea
0.97
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
86%
Chelsea or Norwich
79%
Draw or Norwich
36%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
39%
Norwich wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
57%
Chelsea 3+ goals
30%
Norwich 1+ goals
54%
Norwich 2+ goals
18%
Norwich 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
82%
Norwich (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 202 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

Norwich attack 0.56 + Chelsea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chelsea scores more
64%
level
21%
Norwich scores more
14%

Chelsea at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · F
10.0

Match Events

8'
M. Mount↳ Jorginho
18'
C. Hudson-Odoi↳ M. Kovačić
42'
R. James↳ M. Mount
45'
Pierre Lees Melou
46'
M. Rashica← P. Lees Melou
46'
B. Williams← D. Giannoulis
55'
Ben Gibson
57'
B. Chilwell↳ M. Kovačić
62'
M. AaronsOwn goal
64'
R. Loftus-Cheek← Jorginho
65'
Ben Gibson
65'
Ben Gibson
69'
A. Omobamidele← J. Sargent
70'
R. Barkley← K. Havertz
70'
H. Ziyech← C. Hudson-Odoi
82'
Antonio RüdigerPenalty awarded
83'
Mathias Normann
84'
Mason MountPenalty confirmed
85'
M. MountPenalty
90+1'
M. Mount↳ R. Loftus-Cheek

Possession

62%Chelsea

Shots

23Chelsea

Pass accuracy

54%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaNorwich
Overview
62%Possession38%
23Total Shots3
5Corners0
14Fouls16
Shots
23Total Shots3
13On Target1
7Off Target1
3Blocked1
11Inside Box1
12Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
626Total Passes380
567Accurate Passes299
91%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
14Fouls16
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides0

Premier League: Chelsea 7–0 Norwich

Chelsea beat Norwich 7-0 in Premier League on October 23, 2021.

Goals: M. Mount (8', 85' pen, 90+1'), C. Hudson-Odoi (18'), R. James (42'), B. Chilwell (57'), M. Aarons (62' o.g.).

Chelsea controlled possession (62%) and registered 23 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.