Chelsea 3–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Middlesbrough

N. Matić 65'

Marcos Alonso 34'

Diego Costa 23'

5/8/2017

Premier League · Round 36Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chelsea60%

×Draw24%

Middlesbrough16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.75

Chelsea

1.68

Middlesbrough

0.75

Chelsea creates 124% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 19 away

1.78

creates per match

0.53

0.97

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

Middlesbrough

0.53

allows per match

Chelsea

0.97

Middlesbrough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

84%

Chelsea or Middlesbrough

76%

Draw or Middlesbrough

40%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

33%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

81%

Chelsea 2+ goals

50%

Chelsea 3+ goals

24%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

53%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

17%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

78%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.97 · 202 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Middlesbrough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Middlesbrough attack 0.53 + Chelsea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chelsea scores more

60%

level

24%

Middlesbrough scores more

16%

Chelsea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Fàbregas

Chelsea · M

9.5

Match Events

23'

Diego Costa↳ Fàbregas

34'

Marcos Alonso↳ Azpilicueta

56'

G. Leadbitter← A. Forshaw

57'

P. Bamford← Adama Traoré

60'

65'

72'

81'

83'

R. Gestede← Álvaro Negredo

84'

J. Terry← David Luiz

89'

Patrick Bamford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaMiddlesbrough

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots2

8Corners1

8Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots2

7On Target1

11Off Target0

3Blocked1

13Inside Box1

8Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

619Total Passes466

531Accurate Passes393

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls21

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2