Chelsea 3–2 Leeds: Result & Stats | Premier League

Chelsea

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leeds

Jorginho 90+4' (pen), 58' (pen)

M. Mount 42'

J. Gelhardt 83'

Raphinha 28' (pen)

12/11/2021

Premier League · Round 16Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea52%

×Draw23%

Leeds25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.23

Chelsea

1.85

Leeds

1.23

Chelsea creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

1.87

creates per match

1.17

1.28

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Chelsea

1.87

Leeds

1.17

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Leeds

1.82

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.41scores less

Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

75%

Chelsea or Leeds

77%

Draw or Leeds

48%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

29%

Leeds wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

55%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Leeds 1+ goals

71%

Leeds 2+ goals

35%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

67%

Leeds (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.28 · 37 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Leeds attack 1.17 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chelsea scores more

52%

level

23%

Leeds scores more

25%

Chelsea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jorginho

Chelsea · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

Daniel JamesPenalty confirmed

28'

RaphinhaPenalty

34'

Reece James

42'

Junior Firpo

42'

M. Mount↳ Marcos Alonso

53'

Jamie Shackleton

56'

Antonio RüdigerPenalty awarded

58'

JorginhoPenalty

59'

Mason Mount

59'

M. Klich← J. Shackleton

69'

Mateusz Klich

74'

A. Christensen← Azpilicueta

74'

C. Hudson-Odoi← T. Werner

81'

J. Gelhardt← Raphinha

83'

J. Gelhardt↳ T. Roberts

87'

R. Lukaku← Marcos Alonso

88'

C. Cresswell← D. James

90+3'

Antonio RüdigerPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Diego Llorente

90+3'

Illan Meslier

90+4'

JorginhoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaLeeds

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots12

5Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target5

5Off Target1

5Blocked6

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

415Total Passes304

348Accurate Passes223

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Leeds

Chelsea beat Leeds 3-2 in Premier League on December 11, 2021.

Goals: Raphinha (28' pen), M. Mount (42'), Jorginho (58' pen, 90+4' pen), J. Gelhardt (83').

Chelsea controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Leeds