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Chelsea vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leeds
Leeds
C. Pulisic 90+3'
K. Zouma 61'
O. Giroud 27'
P. Bamford 4'
12/5/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea52%
×Draw23%
Leeds25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.87
Leeds
1.22

Chelsea creates 53% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.92
Leeds
1.17

allows per match

Chelsea
1.27
Leeds
1.82

finishing

Chelsea-0.37scores less
Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
75%
Chelsea or Leeds
77%
Draw or Leeds
48%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
30%
Leeds wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea 3+ goals
29%
Leeds 1+ goals
70%
Leeds 2+ goals
34%
Leeds 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
68%
Leeds (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.92 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Leeds attack 1.17 + Chelsea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chelsea scores more
52%
level
23%
Leeds scores more
25%

Chelsea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · M
8.2

Match Events

4'
P. Bamford↳ K. Phillips
9'
Llorente← R. Koch
27'
O. Giroud↳ R. James
30'
C. Pulisic← H. Ziyech
57'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← J. Harrison
61'
K. Zouma↳ M. Mount
67'
M. Kovačić← K. Havertz
69'
Rodrigo← E. Alioski
74'
Diego Llorente
79'
T. Abraham← O. Giroud
90'
Raphinha
90+3'
C. Pulisic↳ T. Werner

Possession

45%Chelsea

Shots

23Chelsea

Pass accuracy

49%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaLeeds
Overview
45%Possession55%
23Total Shots8
8Corners4
12Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots8
11On Target3
7Off Target4
5Blocked1
19Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
408Total Passes481
318Accurate Passes395
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Premier League: Chelsea 3–1 Leeds

Chelsea beat Leeds 3-1 in Premier League on December 5, 2020.

Goals: P. Bamford (4'), O. Giroud (27'), K. Zouma (61'), C. Pulisic (90+3').

Leeds controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 23.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.