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Chelsea vs Inter — International Champions Cup 2018

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
7/29/2017International Champions CupInternational Champions Cup · Singapore - 1The National Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chelsea21%
×Draw32%
Inter46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
0.64
Inter
1.10

Inter creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chelsea
0.67
Inter
1.20

allows per match

Chelsea
1.00
Inter
0.60

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
54%
Chelsea or Inter
68%
Draw or Inter
79%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
6%
Inter wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
47%
Chelsea 2+ goals
14%
Chelsea 3+ goals
3%
Inter 1+ goals
67%
Inter 2+ goals
30%
Inter 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
31%
Inter (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Inter away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 0.67 + Inter defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Inter attack 1.20 + Chelsea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chelsea scores more
21%
level
32%
Inter scores more
46%

Inter at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelsea 1 – 2 Inter

Inter beat Chelsea 2-1 in International Champions Cup on July 29, 2017.

The match was played at The National Stadium (Singapore).