Chelsea 1–0 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fehérvár FC

Álvaro Morata 70'

10/4/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chelsea61%

×Draw20%

Fehérvár FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.10

Chelsea

2.16

Fehérvár FC

1.10

Chelsea creates 96% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

3.14

creates per match

1.50

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Chelsea

3.14

Fehérvár FC

1.50

allows per match

Chelsea

0.71

Fehérvár FC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

81%

Chelsea or Fehérvár FC

80%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

39%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

38%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

88%

Chelsea 2+ goals

63%

Chelsea 3+ goals

36%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

67%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

30%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

77%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 3.14 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fehérvár FC attack 1.50 + Chelsea defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chelsea scores more

61%

level

20%

Fehérvár FC scores more

19%

Chelsea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Willian

Chelsea · F

8.5

Match Events

14'

Loïc Nego

44'

Szabolcs Huszti

54'

E. Hazard← Pedro

56'

Georgi Milanov

66'

Álvaro Morata

66'

R. Barkley← R. Loftus-Cheek

70'

Álvaro Morata↳ Willian

74'

V. Moses← Willian

77'

I. Kovács← S. Huszti

83'

A. Hodžić← G. Milanov

83'

M. Pátkai← A. Hadžić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaFehérvár

Overview

76%Possession24%

28Total Shots7

18Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

28Total Shots7

5On Target3

12Off Target3

11Blocked1

15Inside Box6

13Outside Box1

Passing

76%Possession24%

693Total Passes216

629Accurate Passes142

91%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4