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Chelsea vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
8 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
11/7/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chelsea78%
×Draw14%
FC Noah8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
2.80
FC Noah
0.81

Chelsea creates 246% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chelsea
3.14
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

Chelsea
0.71
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
92%
Chelsea or FC Noah
86%
Draw or FC Noah
22%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
57%
FC Noah wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
94%
Chelsea 2+ goals
76%
Chelsea 3+ goals
52%
FC Noah 1+ goals
56%
FC Noah 2+ goals
19%
FC Noah 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
90%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 3.14 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.80

FC Noah attack 0.92 + Chelsea defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Chelsea scores more
78%
level
14%
FC Noah scores more
8%

Chelsea at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Chelsea 8–0 FC Noah

Chelsea beat FC Noah 8-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.