Chelsea vs Burnley — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 21+ matches
Chelsea60%
Burnley19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chelsea creates 96% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chelsea ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chelsea at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches
Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chelsea attack 1.93 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.02
Burnley attack 0.79 + Chelsea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Chelsea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Burnley substitutes
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BrentfordChelsea
Fulham
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West HamBurnley
WolvesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Chelsea host Burnley on Sunday, 31 January 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Premier League: Chelsea 2–0 Burnley
Chelsea beat Burnley 2-0 in Premier League on January 31, 2021.
Goals: Azpilicueta (40'), Marcos Alonso (84').
Chelsea controlled possession (71%) and registered 19 shots to 1.
The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.