Chelsea 2–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Burnley

G. Higuaín 14'

N. Kanté 12'

A. Barnes 24'

J. Hendrick 8'

4/22/2019

Premier League · Round 35Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Chelsea59%

×Draw22%

Burnley19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.04

Chelsea

1.98

Burnley

1.04

Chelsea creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 21 away

1.86

creates per match

0.79

1.28

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Burnley

2.10

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

81%

Chelsea or Burnley

78%

Draw or Burnley

41%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

35%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

86%

Chelsea 2+ goals

59%

Chelsea 3+ goals

31%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

75%

Burnley (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.98

Burnley attack 0.79 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chelsea scores more

59%

level

22%

Burnley scores more

19%

Chelsea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

8.6

Match Events

8'

J. Hendrick

12'

N. Kanté↳ E. Hazard

14'

G. Higuaín↳ Azpilicueta

24'

A. Barnes↳ C. Wood

32'

Tom Heaton

41'

Pedro← C. Hudson-Odoi

46'

M. Kovačić← N. Kanté

77'

O. Giroud← G. Higuaín

90'

Mateo Kovačić

90'

Pedro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBurnley

Overview

76%Possession24%

22Total Shots6

10Corners1

9Fouls4

Shots

22Total Shots6

9On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked1

12Inside Box4

10Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

681Total Passes219

597Accurate Passes131

88%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2