Chelsea 2–3 Burnley: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Burnley

David Luiz 88'

Álvaro Morata 69'

S. Vokes 43', 24'

S. Ward 39'

8/12/2017

Premier League · Round 1Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Chelsea59%

×Draw22%

Burnley19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.04

Chelsea

1.98

Burnley

1.04

Chelsea creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 21 away

1.86

creates per match

0.79

1.28

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Burnley

2.10

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

81%

Chelsea or Burnley

78%

Draw or Burnley

41%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

35%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

86%

Chelsea 2+ goals

59%

Chelsea 3+ goals

31%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

75%

Burnley (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.98

Burnley attack 0.79 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chelsea scores more

59%

level

22%

Burnley scores more

19%

Chelsea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Vokes

Burnley · F

8.4

Match Events

3'

Marcos Alonso

14'

Gary Cahill

16'

Cesc Fàbregas

18'

A. Christensen← J. Boga

24'

S. Vokes↳ M. Lowton

39'

S. Ward↳ J. Cork

43'

S. Vokes↳ S. Defour

59'

Álvaro Morata← M. Batshuayi

60'

Robbie Brady

63'

Ben Mee

69'

Álvaro Morata↳ Willian

75'

J. Walters← S. Defour

75'

S. Arfield← J. Guðmundsson

77'

77'

81'

81'

88'

David Luiz↳ Álvaro Morata

89'

Antonio Rüdiger

90+2'

C. Musonda← A. Christensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBurnley

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots10

8Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target5

6Off Target4

7Blocked1

7Inside Box8

12Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

521Total Passes320

446Accurate Passes241

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Burnley

Burnley beat Chelsea 3-2 in Premier League on August 12, 2017.

Goals: S. Vokes (24', 43'), S. Ward (39'), Álvaro Morata (69'), David Luiz (88').

Chelsea controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Burnley