Chelsea 3–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burnley

V. Moses 89'

Willian 41'

E. Hazard 9'

8/27/2016

Premier League · Round 3Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Chelsea60%

×Draw21%

Burnley19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.02

Chelsea

2.00

Burnley

1.02

Chelsea creates 96% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 21 away

1.89

creates per match

0.79

1.25

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Chelsea

1.89

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Chelsea

1.25

Burnley

2.10

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.45scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

81%

Chelsea or Burnley

79%

Draw or Burnley

40%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

36%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

86%

Chelsea 2+ goals

59%

Chelsea 3+ goals

32%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

76%

Burnley (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.00

Burnley attack 0.79 + Chelsea defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chelsea scores more

60%

level

21%

Burnley scores more

19%

Chelsea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

31'

41'

44'

50'

57'

J. Guðmundsson← S. Arfield

57'

A. O'Neill← S. Defour

72'

J. Tarkowski← D. Marney

77'

V. Moses← Willian

80'

M. Batshuayi← Diego Costa

81'

Pedro← E. Hazard

89'

V. Moses↳ Pedro

90'

James Tarkowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBurnley

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots6

9Corners5

6Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots6

10On Target0

7Off Target4

5Blocked2

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

626Total Passes410

545Accurate Passes314

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2