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Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D. Gosling 84'
12/14/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Chelsea48%
×Draw23%
Bournemouth29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.87
Bournemouth
1.41

Chelsea creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Bournemouth
1.53

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Bournemouth
1.88

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
71%
Chelsea or Bournemouth
77%
Draw or Bournemouth
52%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea 3+ goals
29%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
76%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
41%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
62%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chelsea scores more
48%
level
23%
Bournemouth scores more
29%

Chelsea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
AzpilicuetaChelseaChelsea · D
8.2

Match Events

50'
Lewis Cook
65'
M. Kovačić← C. Pulisic
65'
C. Hudson-Odoi← Willian
75'
D. Solanke← J. King
78'
M. Batshuayi← Jorginho
81'
Mateo Kovačić
82'
Dan Gosling
84'
D. Gosling↳ J. Lerma

Possession

67%Chelsea

Shots

18Chelsea

Pass accuracy

56%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaBournemouth
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots11
9Corners4
9Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots11
5On Target2
5Off Target1
8Blocked8
15Inside Box11
3Outside Box0
Passing
67%Possession33%
590Total Passes293
487Accurate Passes192
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Chelsea 1-0 in Premier League on December 14, 2019.

Goals: D. Gosling (84').

Chelsea controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.