Bournemouth 1–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Chelsea

M. Viña 21'

João Félix 86'

B. Badiashile 82'

C. Gallagher 9'

5/6/2023

Premier League · Round 35Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Bournemouth43%

×Draw25%

Chelsea32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Bournemouth

1.52

Chelsea

1.27

Bournemouth creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

1.68

creates per match

1.53

1.01

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.68

Chelsea

1.53

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.01

Chelsea

1.35

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.26scores less

Chelsea-0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

68%

Bournemouth or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

57%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

21%

Chelsea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

78%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

45%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

20%

Chelsea 1+ goals

72%

Chelsea 2+ goals

36%

Chelsea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

58%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.01 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.68 + Chelsea defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea attack 1.53 + Bournemouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bournemouth scores more

43%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

32%

Bournemouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

H. Ziyech

Chelsea · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

C. Gallagher↳ N. Kanté

15'

20'

21'

45+3'

59'

63'

R. Loftus-Cheek← N. Kanté

63'

R. Sterling← M. Mudryk

65'

Benoît Badiashile

75'

César Azpilicueta← B. Chilwell

76'

H. Ziyech← N. Madueke

82'

B. Badiashile↳ H. Ziyech

83'

J. Anthony← P. Billing

84'

A. Semenyo← R. Christie

84'

João Félix← K. Havertz

86'

João Félix↳ R. Sterling

90'

D. Brooks← D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthChelsea

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots11

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.35

7Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

305Total Passes600

230Accurate Passes529

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Premier League: Bournemouth 1–3 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Bournemouth 3-1 in Premier League on May 6, 2023.

Goals: C. Gallagher (9'), M. Viña (21'), B. Badiashile (82'), João Félix (86').

Chelsea controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.

Bournemouth vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Bournemouth 1–3 Chelsea