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Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
N. Aké 67'
J. Stanislas 64'
C. Wilson 51'
1/31/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Chelsea48%
×Draw23%
Bournemouth29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.87
Bournemouth
1.41

Chelsea creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Bournemouth
1.53

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Bournemouth
1.88

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
71%
Chelsea or Bournemouth
77%
Draw or Bournemouth
52%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
27%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea 3+ goals
29%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
76%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
41%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
62%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chelsea scores more
48%
level
23%
Bournemouth scores more
29%

Chelsea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. AkéBournemouthBournemouth · D
8.4

Match Events

28'
A. Rüdiger← A. Christensen
51'
C. Wilson↳ J. Ibe
54'
Fàbregas← R. Barkley
64'
J. Stanislas↳ C. Wilson
65'
C. Hudson-Odoi← D. Zappacosta
67'
N. Aké
71'
J. King← J. Stanislas
77'
Cesc Fàbregas
83'
M. Pugh← J. Ibe
90+2'
L. Mousset← C. Wilson

Possession

65%Chelsea

Shots

21Chelsea

Pass accuracy

54%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaBournemouth
Overview
65%Possession35%
21Total Shots11
8Corners5
5Fouls12
Shots
21Total Shots11
5On Target5
8Off Target2
8Blocked4
11Inside Box5
10Outside Box6
Passing
65%Possession35%
618Total Passes329
517Accurate Passes241
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Chelsea 3-0 in Premier League on January 31, 2018.

Goals: C. Wilson (51'), J. Stanislas (64'), N. Aké (67').

Chelsea controlled possession (65%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.