Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bournemouth

S. Cook 90+3' (OG)

E. Hazard 49' (pen)

Pedro 24'

12/26/2016

Premier League · Round 18Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Chelsea48%

×Draw23%

Bournemouth29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.41

Chelsea

1.87

Bournemouth

1.41

Chelsea creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.86

creates per match

1.53

1.28

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Bournemouth

1.88

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

71%

Chelsea or Bournemouth

77%

Draw or Bournemouth

52%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

85%

Chelsea 2+ goals

56%

Chelsea 3+ goals

29%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

76%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

41%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

62%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.87

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chelsea scores more

48%

level

23%

Bournemouth scores more

29%

Chelsea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

9.5

Match Events

14'

Jack Wilshere

24'

Pedro↳ Fàbregas

49'

E. HazardPenalty

63'

Pedro

66'

B. Afobe← J. King

66'

J. Stanislas← A. Surman

77'

J. Ibe← B. Smith

83'

N. Chalobah← Willian

90+4'

M. Batshuayi← E. Hazard

90'

O. Aina← V. Moses

90+3'

S. CookOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaBournemouth

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots7

5Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target3

7Off Target1

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

474Total Passes591

400Accurate Passes509

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth

Chelsea beat Bournemouth 3-0 in Premier League on December 26, 2016.

Goals: Pedro (24'), E. Hazard (49' pen), S. Cook (90+3' o.g.).

Bournemouth controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth