Chelsea 3–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arsenal

Fàbregas 85'

E. Hazard 53'

Marcos Alonso 13'

O. Giroud 90+1'

2/4/2017

Premier League · Round 24Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Chelsea36%

×Draw25%

Arsenal40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.50

Chelsea

1.41

Arsenal

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.86

creates per match

1.71

1.28

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Arsenal

1.71

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Arsenal

0.96

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Arsenal+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

60%

Chelsea or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

64%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

16%

Arsenal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

47%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Arsenal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.41

Arsenal attack 1.71 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chelsea scores more

36%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

40%

Arsenal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · F

8.6

Match Events

13'

Marcos Alonso

17'

Gabriel Paulista← Bellerín

23'

Shkodran Mustafi

53'

E. Hazard

65'

O. Giroud← F. Coquelin

70'

Nemanja Matić

70'

D. Welbeck← T. Walcott

84'

Fàbregas← E. Hazard

84'

Willian← Pedro

85'

Fàbregas

88'

K. Zouma← V. Moses

90+1'

O. Giroud↳ Nacho Monreal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaArsenal

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots9

10Corners13

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target5

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

410Total Passes561

326Accurate Passes472

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3