Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

Mikel Merino 20'

3/16/2025

Premier League · Round 29Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Arsenal47%

×Draw25%

Chelsea28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

Arsenal

1.57

Chelsea

1.17

Arsenal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

1.75

creates per match

1.57

0.76

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Arsenal

1.75

Chelsea

1.57

allows per match

Arsenal

0.76

Chelsea

1.40

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Arsenal+0.60scores more

Chelsea-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

72%

Arsenal or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

53%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

24%

Chelsea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal 2+ goals

46%

Arsenal 3+ goals

21%

Chelsea 1+ goals

69%

Chelsea 2+ goals

33%

Chelsea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

62%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.76 · 31 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.75 + Chelsea defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Chelsea attack 1.57 + Arsenal defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arsenal scores more

47%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

28%

Arsenal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Rice

Arsenal · M

7.5

Match Events

20'

Mikel Merino↳ M. Ødegaard

30'

52'

54'

58'

59'

65'

76'

K. Dewsbury-Hall← C. Nkunku

76'

T. George← J. Sancho

79'

E. Nwaneri← Gabriel Martinelli

82'

R. Lavia← R. James

86'

T. Adarabioyo← B. Badiashile

86'

M. Gusto← W. Fofana

90'

K. Tierney← M. Ødegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalChelsea

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots8

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.35

5Corners4

10Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target2

6Off Target3

2Blocked3

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

346Total Passes508

292Accurate Passes441

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.29Goals Prevented-0.29

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1