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Chegutu Pirates vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yadah
Yadah
8/25/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates38%
×Draw29%
Yadah33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chegutu Pirates
1.14
Yadah
1.03

Chegutu Pirates creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates
1.24
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw
67%
Chegutu Pirates or Yadah
71%
Draw or Yadah
62%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
16%
Yadah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
68%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
32%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
11%
Yadah 1+ goals
64%
Yadah 2+ goals
28%
Yadah 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
54%
Yadah (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yadah attack 0.82 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more
38%
level
29%
Yadah scores more
33%

Chegutu Pirates at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chegutu Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chegutu Pirates vs Yadah

Yadah beat Chegutu Pirates 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.