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Chegutu Pirates vs TelOne — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TelOne
TelOne
9/29/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates32%
×Draw30%
TelOne38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chegutu Pirates
0.97
TelOne
1.10

TelOne creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
TelOne
0.97

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates
1.24
TelOne
1.00

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par
TelOne+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

TelOne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw
62%
Chegutu Pirates or TelOne
70%
Draw or TelOne
68%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
12%
TelOne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
62%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
25%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
7%
TelOne 1+ goals
67%
TelOne 2+ goals
30%
TelOne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
45%
TelOne (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

TelOne away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + TelOne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

TelOne attack 0.97 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more
32%
level
30%
TelOne scores more
38%

TelOne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chegutu Pirates vs TelOne

TelOne beat Chegutu Pirates 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.