Chegutu Pirates 1–2 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Chegutu Pirates

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Highlanders

8/4/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 22Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates34%

×Draw31%

Highlanders36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chegutu PiratesExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.03

Chegutu Pirates

0.99

Highlanders

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

0.94

creates per match

0.83

1.24

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates

0.94

Highlanders

0.83

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates

1.24

Highlanders

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw

64%

Chegutu Pirates or Highlanders

69%

Draw or Highlanders

66%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+

13%

Highlanders wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals

63%

Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals

26%

Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals

8%

Highlanders 1+ goals

64%

Highlanders 2+ goals

28%

Highlanders 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)

48%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Highlanders away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + Highlanders defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Highlanders attack 0.83 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more

34%

level

31%

Highlanders scores more

36%

Highlanders at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff