Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chegutu Pirates vs Arenel Movers — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arenel Movers
Arenel Movers
6/30/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates46%
×Draw28%
Arenel Movers26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chegutu Pirates
1.32
Arenel Movers
0.92

Chegutu Pirates creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
Arenel Movers
0.59

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates
1.24
Arenel Movers
1.71

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par
Arenel Movers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

Arenel Movers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw
74%
Chegutu Pirates or Arenel Movers
72%
Draw or Arenel Movers
54%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
21%
Arenel Movers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
73%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
38%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
15%
Arenel Movers 1+ goals
60%
Arenel Movers 2+ goals
23%
Arenel Movers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
64%
Arenel Movers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Arenel Movers away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + Arenel Movers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arenel Movers attack 0.59 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more
46%
level
28%
Arenel Movers scores more
26%

Chegutu Pirates at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chegutu Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Chegutu Pirates 1–0 Arenel Movers

Chegutu Pirates beat Arenel Movers 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.