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Chebba vs US BEN Guerdane — Cup 2019

Chebba
Chebba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
US BEN Guerdane
US BEN Guerdane
2/29/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsChebba Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chebba39%
×Draw29%
US BEN Guerdane33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chebba
1.20
US BEN Guerdane
1.07

Chebba creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chebba
0.83
US BEN Guerdane
1.14

allows per match

Chebba
1.00
US BEN Guerdane
1.57

finishing

Chebba+0.00on par
US BEN Guerdane+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chebba ↓

US BEN Guerdane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chebba or draw
67%
Chebba or US BEN Guerdane
71%
Draw or US BEN Guerdane
61%

Winning margin

Chebba wins by 2+
17%
US BEN Guerdane wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chebba 1+ goals
70%
Chebba 2+ goals
34%
Chebba 3+ goals
12%
US BEN Guerdane 1+ goals
66%
US BEN Guerdane 2+ goals
29%
US BEN Guerdane 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chebba (draw refunded)
55%
US BEN Guerdane (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chebba at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

US BEN Guerdane away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chebba attack 0.83 + US BEN Guerdane defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

US BEN Guerdane attack 1.14 + Chebba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chebba scores more
39%
level
29%
US BEN Guerdane scores more
33%

Chebba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Chebba 0–0 US BEN Guerdane

Chebba and US BEN Guerdane drew 0-0 in Cup on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Chebba Municipal in As-Sabbah.