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Chebba vs Olympique Béja — Cup 2019

Chebba
Chebbaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Béja
Olympique Béja
6/2/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chebba28%
×Draw33%
Olympique Béja39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chebba
0.79
Olympique Béja
1.00

Olympique Béja creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chebba
0.83
Olympique Béja
1.00

allows per match

Chebba
1.00
Olympique Béja
0.75

finishing

Chebba+0.00on par
Olympique Béja+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chebba ↓

Olympique Béja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chebba or draw
61%
Chebba or Olympique Béja
67%
Draw or Olympique Béja
72%

Winning margin

Chebba wins by 2+
9%
Olympique Béja wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chebba 1+ goals
55%
Chebba 2+ goals
19%
Chebba 3+ goals
5%
Olympique Béja 1+ goals
63%
Olympique Béja 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Béja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chebba (draw refunded)
41%
Olympique Béja (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chebba at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Olympique Béja away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chebba attack 0.83 + Olympique Béja defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Olympique Béja attack 1.00 + Chebba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chebba scores more
28%
level
33%
Olympique Béja scores more
39%

Olympique Béja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Béja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chebba vs Olympique Béja

Chebba beat Olympique Béja 2-0 in Cup on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De La Chebba in Chebba.