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Chebba vs Esperance Tunis — Cup 2019

Chebba
Chebba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunisadvanced
9/23/2020CupCup · Semi-finalsChebba Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chebba12%
×Draw23%
Esperance Tunis65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chebba
0.57
Esperance Tunis
1.69

Esperance Tunis creates 196% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chebba
0.83
Esperance Tunis
2.38

allows per match

Chebba
1.00
Esperance Tunis
0.31

finishing

Chebba+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chebba ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–118%
0–215%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chebba or draw
35%
Chebba or Esperance Tunis
77%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
88%

Winning margin

Chebba wins by 2+
3%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Chebba 1+ goals
43%
Chebba 2+ goals
11%
Chebba 3+ goals
2%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
82%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
50%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Chebba (draw refunded)
16%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chebba at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chebba attack 0.83 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.57

Esperance Tunis attack 2.38 + Chebba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chebba scores more
12%
level
23%
Esperance Tunis scores more
65%

Esperance Tunis at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Chebba 0–2 Esperance Tunis

Esperance Tunis beat Chebba 2-0 in Cup on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Chebba Municipal in As-Sabbah.