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Chebba vs ES Zarzis — Cup 2019

Chebba
Chebbaadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
6/7/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chebba24%
×Draw33%
ES Zarzis43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chebba
0.69
ES Zarzis
1.04

ES Zarzis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chebba
0.83
ES Zarzis
1.09

allows per match

Chebba
1.00
ES Zarzis
0.55

finishing

Chebba+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chebba ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–118%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chebba or draw
57%
Chebba or ES Zarzis
67%
Draw or ES Zarzis
76%

Winning margin

Chebba wins by 2+
7%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chebba 1+ goals
50%
Chebba 2+ goals
15%
Chebba 3+ goals
3%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
65%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
28%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chebba (draw refunded)
36%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chebba at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chebba attack 0.83 + ES Zarzis defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

ES Zarzis attack 1.09 + Chebba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chebba scores more
24%
level
33%
ES Zarzis scores more
43%

ES Zarzis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Chebba 1–1 ES Zarzis

Chebba and ES Zarzis drew 1-1 in Cup on June 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De La Chebba in Chebba.