Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
3/8/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Boisko treningowe MOSiR Chełm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm44%
×Draw24%
Wisłoka Dębica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
1.61
Wisłoka Dębica
1.33

Chełmianka Chełm creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
68%
Chełmianka Chełm or Wisłoka Dębica
76%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
56%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
22%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
80%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
48%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
22%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
74%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
38%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
58%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
44%
level
24%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
32%

Chełmianka Chełm at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica

Wisłoka Dębica beat Chełmianka Chełm 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Boisko treningowe MOSiR Chełm in Chełm.