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Chełmianka Chełm vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
8/25/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm64%
×Draw17%
Lublinianka18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
2.67
Lublinianka
1.37

Chełmianka Chełm creates 95% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
82%
Chełmianka Chełm or Lublinianka
83%
Draw or Lublinianka
36%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
44%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
93%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
74%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
49%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
75%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
40%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
78%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.67

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
64%
level
17%
Lublinianka scores more
18%

Chełmianka Chełm at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chełmianka Chełm vs Lublinianka

Chełmianka Chełm beat Lublinianka 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.