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Chełmianka Chełm vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
5/13/2026III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm43%
×Draw25%
KSZO 192932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
1.52
KSZO 1929
1.27

Chełmianka Chełm creates 20% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 105 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
68%
Chełmianka Chełm or KSZO 1929
75%
Draw or KSZO 1929
57%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
21%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
78%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
45%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
20%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
72%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
36%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
58%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
43%
level
25%
KSZO 1929 scores more
32%

Chełmianka Chełm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Chełmianka Chełm 1–0 KSZO 1929

Chełmianka Chełm beat KSZO 1929 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 13, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.