Chełmianka Chełm 0–2 Korona Rzeszow: Result & Stats

Chełmianka Chełm

FT

0 – 2

Korona Rzeszow

8/21/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm55%

×Draw22%

Korona Rzeszow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chełmianka ChełmExpected goals in this matchKorona Rzeszow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.21

Chełmianka Chełm

2.00

Korona Rzeszow

1.21

Chełmianka Chełm creates 65% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

1.77

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.77

Korona Rzeszow

1.24

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.18

Korona Rzeszow

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Korona Rzeszow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw

77%

Chełmianka Chełm or Korona Rzeszow

78%

Draw or Korona Rzeszow

45%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

33%

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

86%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

59%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

32%

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals

70%

Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals

34%

Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

71%

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

55%

level

22%

Korona Rzeszow scores more

23%

Chełmianka Chełm at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff