Chełmianka Chełm 1–1 Łagów: Result & Stats

Chełmianka Chełm

FT

1 – 1

Łagów

8/16/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm40%

×Draw26%

Łagów34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chełmianka ChełmExpected goals in this matchŁagów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Chełmianka Chełm

1.40

Łagów

1.27

Chełmianka Chełm creates 10% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.77

creates per match

1.36

1.18

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.77

Łagów

1.36

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.18

Łagów

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Łagów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw

66%

Chełmianka Chełm or Łagów

74%

Draw or Łagów

60%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

19%

Łagów wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

75%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

41%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

17%

Łagów 1+ goals

72%

Łagów 2+ goals

36%

Łagów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

54%

Łagów (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.40

Łagów attack 1.36 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

40%

level

26%

Łagów scores more

34%

Chełmianka Chełm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff