Łagów 1–2 Chełmianka Chełm: Result & Stats

Łagów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Chełmianka Chełm

5/7/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów40%

×Draw24%

Chełmianka Chełm36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁagówExpected goals in this matchChełmianka Chełm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.50

Łagów

1.60

Chełmianka Chełm

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

1.78

creates per match

1.73

1.28

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Łagów

1.78

Chełmianka Chełm

1.73

allows per match

Łagów

1.28

Chełmianka Chełm

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Łagów or draw

64%

Łagów or Chełmianka Chełm

76%

Draw or Chełmianka Chełm

60%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+

20%

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals

80%

Łagów 2+ goals

47%

Łagów 3+ goals

22%

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

78%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

44%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)

53%

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Łagów scores more

40%

level

24%

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

36%

Łagów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff