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Chayka vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Chayka
Chayka
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tyumen
Tyumen
11/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Chayka39%
×Draw28%
Tyumen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.22
Tyumen
1.08

Chayka creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 58 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Tyumen
0.79

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Tyumen
1.40

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
68%
Chayka or Tyumen
72%
Draw or Tyumen
61%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
17%
Tyumen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
70%
Chayka 2+ goals
34%
Chayka 3+ goals
12%
Tyumen 1+ goals
66%
Tyumen 2+ goals
29%
Tyumen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
55%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tyumen attack 0.79 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chayka scores more
39%
level
28%
Tyumen scores more
32%

Chayka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chayka 3 – 0 Tyumen

Chayka beat Tyumen 3-0 in First League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.