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Chayka vs Torpedo Moskva — Cup 2019

Chayka
Chayka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
8/26/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 2Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chayka38%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.19
Torpedo Moskva
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

allows per match

Chayka
0.86
Torpedo Moskva
1.38

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
66%
Chayka or Torpedo Moskva
72%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
62%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
70%
Chayka 2+ goals
33%
Chayka 3+ goals
12%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
31%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
52%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.00 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.38 + Chayka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chayka scores more
38%
level
28%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
34%

Chayka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Chayka 1–0 Torpedo Moskva

Chayka beat Torpedo Moskva 1-0 in Cup on August 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.