Chayka 0–2 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats | Cup

Chayka

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tekstilshchik

8/26/2020

Cup · 3rd RoundStadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chayka20%

×Draw25%

Tekstilshchik55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.59

Chayka

0.83

Tekstilshchik

1.59

Tekstilshchik creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

0.86

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Chayka

1.00

Tekstilshchik

2.33

allows per match

Chayka

0.86

Tekstilshchik

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

45%

Chayka or Tekstilshchik

75%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

80%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

6%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

56%

Chayka 2+ goals

20%

Chayka 3+ goals

5%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

80%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

47%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

26%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.00 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Tekstilshchik attack 2.33 + Chayka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chayka scores more

20%

level

25%

Tekstilshchik scores more

55%

Tekstilshchik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff