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Chayka vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Chayka
Chayka
CANC
00:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/2/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chayka39%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.27
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 123 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
66%
Chayka or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
61%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
72%
Chayka 2+ goals
36%
Chayka 3+ goals
14%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
33%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
53%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.50 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chayka scores more
39%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
34%

Chayka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chayka face Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League)

First League returns with Chayka hosting Shinnik Yaroslavl. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.