Chayka 1–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

S. Biblik 12'

5/17/2025

First League · Round 33Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chayka30%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.21

Chayka

0.99

Rotor Volgograd

1.21

Rotor Volgograd creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

1.04

creates per match

1.06

1.36

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Chayka

1.04

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Chayka

1.36

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

59%

Chayka or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

70%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

11%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

63%

Chayka 2+ goals

26%

Chayka 3+ goals

8%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

70%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

34%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

42%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chayka scores more

30%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

41%

Rotor Volgograd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Biblik

23'

A. Shumskikh← A. Kleshchenko

34'

I. Safronov← Z. Pliev

46'

D. Lavrishchev← M. Maltsev

55'

Andrey Evdokimov

67'

S. Makarov← N. Plotnikov

67'

D. Talikin← E. Bolotov

70'

Danil Pelikh

73'

D. Chernyakov← V. Rudenko

75'

Nikita Malyarov

77'

M. Torop← M. Bammatgereev

84'

O. Kozachenko← S. Biblik

90+4'

Kamil Ibragimov

Statistics

ChaykaRotor

Discipline

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0