Chayka 0–4 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Buzova

11/5/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 10Stadion Livyy Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chayka26%

×Draw27%

Nyva Buzova47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.39

Chayka

0.97

Nyva Buzova

1.39

Nyva Buzova creates 43% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 8 away

1.55

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Chayka

1.55

Nyva Buzova

1.63

allows per match

Chayka

1.15

Nyva Buzova

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

53%

Chayka or Nyva Buzova

73%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

74%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

9%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

62%

Chayka 2+ goals

25%

Chayka 3+ goals

7%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

75%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

40%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

36%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.55 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Nyva Buzova attack 1.63 + Chayka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chayka scores more

26%

level

27%

Nyva Buzova scores more

47%

Nyva Buzova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff