Chayka 1–3 Murom: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Murom

A. Khokhlachev 59'

R. Gystarov 90'

I. Azyavin 50', 20'

9/3/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 8Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chayka38%

×Draw26%

Murom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Chayka

1.33

Murom

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.44

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chayka

1.33

Murom

1.44

allows per match

Chayka

1.11

Murom

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

65%

Chayka or Murom

74%

Draw or Murom

62%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

17%

Murom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

74%

Chayka 2+ goals

38%

Chayka 3+ goals

15%

Murom 1+ goals

72%

Murom 2+ goals

36%

Murom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

52%

Murom (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Murom away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.33 + Murom defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Murom attack 1.44 + Chayka defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chayka scores more

38%

level

26%

Murom scores more

35%

Chayka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

I. Azyavin

40'

A. Ivashin

45'

N. Karmaev← A. Khugaev

50'

I. Azyavin

55'

E. Zarypbekov← D. Sadov

59'

A. Khokhlachev

68'

E. Zarypbekov

70'

E. Butakov

70'

M. Agaronyan← A. Nadolskiy

70'

D. Sysuev← I. Azyavin

70'

G. Komissarov← Y. Pershin

75'

I. Gabdullin← E. Butakov

82'

D. Gribanov← H. Grigoryan

82'

N. Kaverin← D. Kvekveskiri

84'

D. Zinovic

86'

D. Sysuev

89'

A. Shcheglov← L. Chaukin

90+4'

N. Prisyazhnenko

90'

R. Gystarov

Chayka

Murom

32

Prisyazhn

28

▼

88

5

21

23

17

▼

Pershin

61

⚽

Gystarov

7

▼

Chaukin

24

⚽2

▼

Azyavin

9

▼

45

40

84

4

15

▼

Khugaev

9

▼

Grigoryan

10

▼

Kvekveski

8

▼

Sadov

18

Nikolaev

19

Dolgov

7

⚽

Khokhlach

Manager: I. Semshov

45'▲N. Karmaev←▼A. Khugaev

55'▲E. Zarypbekov←▼D. Sadov

82'▲D. Gribanov←▼H. Grigoryan

82'▲N. Kaverin←▼D. Kvekveskiri

Chayka substitutes

44Karmaev77Zarypbekov17Gribanov21Kaverin30Zamerets63Nesterov71Butovchenko88Fateev94Koldunov97Tsutsulaev

Manager: E. Perevertaylo

70'▲M. Agaronyan←▼A. Nadolskiy

70'▲D. Sysuev←▼I. Azyavin

70'▲G. Komissarov←▼Y. Pershin

75'▲I. Gabdullin←▼E. Butakov

89'▲A. Shcheglov←▼L. Chaukin

Murom substitutes

10Agaronyan11Sysuev18Komissarov47Gabdullin15Shcheglov25Trunin33Romanov

Chayka 1 – 3 Murom

Murom beat Chayka 3-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 3, 2023.

Goals: I. Azyavin (20', 50'), A. Khokhlachev (59'), R. Gystarov (90').

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.

Chayka vs Murom — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Chayka 1 – 3 Murom